Journal Issue: Artificial Intelligence and Medical Humanities
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Journal of Medical Humanities
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Structure of general-population antibody titer distributions to influenza A virus
(2017-07-20) Simmons, Cameron
Seroepidemiological studies aim to understand population-level exposure and immunity to infectious diseases. Their results are normally presented as binary outcomes describing the presence or absence of pathogen-specific antibody, despite the fact that many assays measure continuous quantities. A population's natural distribution of antibody titers to an endemic infectious disease may include information on multiple serological states - naiveté, recent infection, non-recent infection, childhood infection - depending on the disease in question and the acquisition and waning patterns of immunity. In this study, we investigate 20,152 general-population serum samples from southern Vietnam collected between 2009 and 2013 from which we report antibody titers to the influenza virus HA1 protein using a continuous titer measurement from a protein microarray assay. We describe the distributions of antibody titers to subtypes 2009 H1N1 and H3N2. Using a model selection approach to fit mixture distributions, we show that 2009 H1N1 antibody titers fall into four titer subgroups and that H3N2 titers fall into three subgroups. For H1N1, our interpretation is that the two highest-titer subgroups correspond to recent and historical infection, which is consistent with 2009 pandemic attack rates. Similar interpretations are available for H3N2, but right-censoring of titers makes these interpretations difficult to validate.
Clinical Characteristics of Dengue Shock Syndrome in Vietnamese Children: A 10-Year Prospective Study in a Single Hospital
(2013-12-01) Simmons, Cameron
BACKGROUND: Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is a severe manifestation of dengue virus infection that particularly affects children and young adults. Despite its increasing global importance, there are no prospective studies describing the clinical characteristics, management, or outcomes of DSS. METHODS: We describe the findings at onset of shock and the clinical evolution until discharge or death, from a comprehensive prospective dataset of 1719 Vietnamese children with laboratory-confirmed DSS managed on a single intensive care unit between 1999 and 2009. RESULTS: The median age of patients was 10 years. Most cases had secondary immune responses, with only 6 clear primary infections, and all 4 dengue virus serotypes were represented during the 10-year study. Shock occurred commonly between days 4 and 6 of illness. Clinical signs and symptoms were generally consistent with empirical descriptions of DSS, although at presentation 153 (9%) were still febrile and almost one-third had no bleeding. Overall, 31 (2%) patients developed severe bleeding, primarily from the gastrointestinal tract, 26 of whom required blood transfusion. Only 8 patients died, although 123 of 1719 (7%) patients had unrecordable blood pressure at presentation and 417 of the remaining 1596 (26%) were hypotensive for age. The majority recovered well with standard crystalloid resuscitation or following a single colloid infusion. All cases were classified as severe dengue, while only 70% eventually fulfilled all 4 criteria for the 1997 World Health Organization classification of dengue hemorrhagic fever. CONCLUSIONS: With prompt intervention and assiduous clinical care by experienced staff, the outcome of this potentially fatal condition can be excellent.
Genetic epidemiology of dengue viruses in phae III trials of the CYD tetravalent dengue vaccine and implications for efficacy
(2017-09-05) Simmons, Cameron
This study defined the genetic epidemiology of dengue viruses (DENV) in two pivotal phase III trials of the tetravalent dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV, and thereby enabled virus genotype-specific estimates of vaccine efficacy (VE). Envelope gene sequences (n = 661) from 11 DENV genotypes in 10 endemic countries provided a contemporaneous global snapshot of DENV population genetics and revealed high amino acid identity between the E genes of vaccine strains and wild-type viruses from trial participants, including at epitope sites targeted by virus neutralising human monoclonal antibodies. Post-hoc analysis of all CYD14/15 trial participants revealed a statistically significant genotype-level VE association within DENV-4, where efficacy was lowest against genotype I. In subgroup analysis of trial participants age 9-16 years, VE estimates appeared more balanced within each serotype, suggesting that genotype-level heterogeneity may be limited in older children. Post-licensure surveillance is needed to monitor vaccine performance against the backdrop of DENV sequence diversity and evolution.